Commentary, deal stories, and structural guidance from a team that talks to 100+ banks and dozens of institutional private lenders every week.
A maturing loan needs a debt yield near 10% to refinance its full balance at 1.25x on today's curve. Below that line, the gap is a check. A $3M bridge, traced.
On a $3,000,000 value-add multifamily bridge loan with an $800,000 rehab holdback, Dutch interest costs $30,000 more in the first year than non-Dutch interest at the same quoted coupon. The draw schedule, not the pricing, sets the bill.
Your tax return is built to minimize taxable income. Twelve months of business bank statements measure the cash your business actually generates. How owner-occupied commercial purchases get underwritten when the returns don't tell the story.
In August we pre-registered a prediction: if the SLOOS cohort split was real, New Jersey banks should go flat on CRE in the second quarter. Excluding one acquisition, their multifamily books grew 2.69% — faster than banks above $100 billion. But 23 of the 46 New Jersey banks with a multifamily book shrank it. The aggregate and the median disagree, and the disagreement is the finding.
The March 2026 standardized approach proposal would cut CRE risk weights from 100% to 95%, but it does not apply to banks electing the community bank leverage ratio framework. Twelve of New Jersey's fifty chartered banks are affected.
Extensions written in late 2025 assumed a falling index. The market now prices tightening. On the same $3.5M file, the takeout underwritten to 6.50% still clears — the one extended on a sub-6% hope exits at 1.16x.
The Fed's July 2026 SLOOS reported easier CRE standards — but the multifamily easing came only from banks above $100 billion. Every New Jersey-chartered bank is on the other side of that line.
A twelve-month bridge extension looks like a fee and a signature. The replacement rate cap can cost more than the property's entire annual free cash flow — and on a $3.5M loan the break-even is 1.84% of notional.
The loans sitting past maturity carry a rate assumption the July 29 FOMC no longer supports — a 9–3 hold with three dissents for a hike. A traced $3.5M takeout showing what the constant, not the rate, does to proceeds.
Q1 2026 Call Reports: NJ banks hold $74.7B of CRE — 92% of it at institutions at or above the 300% monitoring level. What it means for your renewal.
New SBA 7(a) analysis: acquisition volume rose 73% through a near-doubling of rates. The read-across for the $1M–$5M multifamily bridge market.
Nearly 39% of 2026's $76.6B in CMBS hard maturities lands in Q4. For a $1M–$5M multifamily sponsor, the binding constraint won't be whether the deal pencils — it will be queue position. Why a September-to-February maturity means your refinance starts in July.
June's headline CMBS delinquency rate fell 20 bps — but multifamily rose, and the fastest-growing cohort is loans past maturity still current on interest. What that means for the $1M–$5M takeout window.
The June 2026 hawkish Fed flip broke the 'bridge now, refi cheaper later' trade for small-balance multifamily. The proceeds gap, traced end to end.
The ROAD to Housing Act's institutional single-family cap doesn't touch multifamily — what a sponsor should actually underwrite around is the capital behind it.
Ground-up multifamily construction financing in 2026: starts hit a 15-year low, the supply window is real but geographic, and the honest counter-case.
Sizing a bridge exit into Freddie's Conventional Small: the 1.25x DSCR test — not LTV — caps your proceeds. A traced example of the gap and how to close it.
The 2026 maturity wall for the $1M–$5M multifamily owner: why agency alone doesn't close the proceeds gap, and how bridge and preferred equity do.
The small-balance refi gap: when a value-add bridge matures into 2026 rates, DSCR — not LTV — caps a Freddie Conventional Small takeout, and below $2M there is no Freddie execution at all. A traced hypothetical.
A closed $5.55M Newark multifamily bridge loan anchors a candid read on the 2026 market — rates, who's lending, and when bridge is the right tool.
Dominick Prevete, founder and CEO of Blue Sky Capital Advisors. Every post is written from transactions he has structured and lender conversations he has had directly.
That for small-balance multifamily in 2026, loan proceeds are set by the debt constant and the lender's underwritten NOI rather than by the headline rate — and that the wave of bridge loans originated in 2021–22 and maturing now has to be refinanced on those terms.
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