The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.31% on October 5, 2026, its highest daily close since May 14, 2002, according to the U.S. Treasury's daily par yield curve. It ended last week, on October 9, at 5.24%.
In the same stretch, two refinancings closed that tell you the money is still there: a life company on Charlotte office and a private credit fund on a Mesa industrial park a little over half leased. Both lenders sized to the curve as it stood. A sponsor waiting for rates to fall is the only party in the trade still underwriting to a forecast.
Four weeks, 28 basis points
| Date, 2026 | 5-year | 10-year |
|---|---|---|
| September 11 | 4.78% | 4.96% |
| October 5 (high) | 5.06% | 5.31% |
| October 9 (last close) | 5.02% | 5.24% |
| Change, September 11 to October 9 | +24 bps | +28 bps |
A fixed-rate takeout prices off the Treasury at its term plus a lender's spread, so the move passes straight through to the takeout rate unless spreads tighten. It was not only the long end: the 5-year moved 24 basis points. The September 16 hike, to 3.75 to 4.00%, is covered in the September piece. This is what the curve did after it.
The same file, one month later
In September we traced a $3,000,000 bridge that needed $291,869 of NOI to refinance in full at a 6.75% takeout. Suppose the business plan landed exactly there, and the file cleared at 1.25x on September 11. Now hold the NOI and the lender's spread, and move only the Treasury.
The assumptions are the example's, not any program's terms: a $3,000,000 balance, a 1.25x coverage floor, a 30-year amortization, and the lender's spread over the 10-year held constant. The 6.75% row is a sensitivity carried over from September, not a quote. Blue Sky publishes no rates.
| September 11 | October 9 (10-year +28 bps) | October 5 high (+35 bps) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takeout rate | 6.75% | 7.03% | 7.10% |
| Annual loan constant | 7.783% | 8.008% | 8.064% |
| NOI (held) | $291,869 | $291,869 | $291,869 |
| Debt yield on $3,000,000 | 9.73% | 9.73% | 9.73% |
| Break-even debt yield at 1.25x | 9.73% | 10.01% | 10.08% |
| Maximum proceeds | $3,000,000 | $2,916,000 | $2,895,000 |
| Gap to $3,000,000 | $0 | $84,000 (2.8%) | $105,000 (3.5%) |
| NOI that refinances in full | $291,869 | $300,293 | $302,414 |
A $3,000,000 multifamily refinance sized at 1.25x on a 30-year amortization that cleared in full at a 6.75% takeout rate on September 11, 2026 comes up about $84,000 short at 7.03%, the same spread over the October 9 10-year Treasury.
Nothing about the property changed. The debt yield is 9.73% in every column. What moved is the line it has to clear: the coverage floor times the loan constant, the break-even we derived in September. To close the gap from operations, NOI has to rise 2.9%, to $300,293. Coverage is the binding test in this example by assumption; whether it binds on your file depends on the cap rate, and the October 5 piece has the break-even for that too.
Who is still closing, and on what
On September 30, CBRE announced that it had arranged a $68.3 million five-year permanent loan from a life insurance company for The Nexus and Hub at Waverly in Charlotte. The collateral is two six-story Class A office buildings totaling 312,738 square feet in the 90-acre Waverly mixed-use development. The borrowers are Childress Klein Properties and Ascentris Real Estate Private Equity.
In a closing dated the same day, Pacific Coast Capital Partners (PCCP) provided a $68.3 million refinancing to Logistics Property Co. for Palm Gateway Logistics Center in Mesa, Arizona, a 614,544-square-foot industrial park that was 52.4% leased as of March 2026, according to Connect CRE and Traded. Same number, unrelated deals.
Neither deal is your deal. Both are $68.3 million, and neither is an apartment building. What transfers is the behavior. The life company made a five-year permanent loan on Class A office in a mixed-use setting. The private credit fund lent into a lease-up at 52.4% leased. Capital is sorting by risk, and both lenders sized to the curve they had, not the one they hoped for.
For a $1 million to $5 million multifamily sponsor, the read-across is direct. The stabilized file goes to the permanent takeout at today's constant. The file that needs more time goes to a bridge lender who will price the lease-up. Either way, the lender uses today's rate.
Waiting is a position
For the September 11 proceeds to come back, the takeout rate has to return to 6.75%, which means the 10-year back to about 4.96% with spreads unchanged. It closed there as recently as September 22. Rates can fall that fast. They can also rise that fast, and the wait is the same size bet in both directions: about $74,000 of proceeds per 25 basis points on this file.
The general version holds across the range. On a 30-year amortization at 1.25x, each 25 basis points of takeout rate between 6.75% and 7.50% cuts coverage-sized proceeds by about 2.5%, roughly $73,000 to $75,000 per $3,000,000.
The 10-year has already eased 7 basis points from the October 5 high. A sponsor who waits may be right.
Rerunning is not locking. Sizing the gap today costs nothing and preserves every option. Waiting without sizing it is the expensive version.
Two things can soften the number. Spreads can compress and offset part of a Treasury move; your term sheet, not this table, will show whether they did. And term matters at the margin: from the same 6.75% starting row, a 5-year fixed priced off the 5-year Treasury moved 24 basis points, not 28, to 6.99%, and the gap on this file is $72,000 instead of $84,000.
Each month of waiting on a bridge also carries its own invoices: the replacement rate cap and the exit rate the extension assumed.
Rerun it this week
- Take the balance you owe at maturity and your lender-underwritten NOI, not pro forma.
- Price the takeout off Friday's Treasury close at your term, plus the spread on your most recent term sheet.
- Size proceeds at the coverage floor. The difference to the balance is the number.
Then pick a door: cash-in, an extension with a dated path to the break-even, or a recapitalization. The three doors are laid out in the September piece. A fourth-quarter maturity carries a queue problem on top of the rate problem.
FAQ
How high did the 10-year Treasury go in October 2026? It closed at 5.31% on October 5, 2026, the highest daily close since May 14, 2002, according to the U.S. Treasury's daily par yield curve. It closed at 5.24% on October 9, the last close before October 12, a bond-market holiday.
How much does a 25 basis point rate move change refinance proceeds? About 2.5% on a takeout sized at 1.25x coverage on a 30-year amortization, anywhere in the 6.75% to 7.50% range. That is roughly $73,000 to $75,000 of proceeds per $3,000,000. The rates are a sensitivity range, not quotes.
Should I wait for rates to fall before refinancing? Size the gap at today's rate first, then decide. Rerunning the exit is not locking a rate, and it costs nothing. Waiting is a bet that runs both ways: on the $3,000,000 file traced here, each 25 basis points of takeout rate moves proceeds by about $74,000 in either direction. Spreads can offset part of a Treasury move, and your term sheet will show whether they did. A sponsor who has sized the gap can still choose to wait, with the number in hand.
Treasury figures are daily closes from the U.S. Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates. October 9 is the last close before publication; October 12, 2026 was a bond-market holiday. The 6.75% starting row, the 1.25x coverage floor and the 30-year amortization are example assumptions, not program terms or quotes. The lender's spread over the Treasury is held constant, and proceeds are rounded to the nearest $1,000. The Charlotte loan is from CBRE's September 30, 2026 press release; the Mesa loan is from Connect CRE and Traded. Every deal sizes to its own underwriting on the day it is quoted.